For a long time, going to college was considered a key step toward a better future. Whether to land a good job, earn more money, or simply to increase personal capital, college was considered vital. But over the last few years, fewer people are heading to college, and this shift has raised some serious questions. What’s behind this decline in college enrollment? What does it mean for the students, the schools, and even society as a whole? And perhaps most importantly, what’s next?
How Bad Is It?
To put it simply: fewer people are going to college than ever before. Over the last decade, college enrollment has dropped about 10%. The decline was already happening, but the COVID-19 pandemic amplified some of difficulties faced by admissions offices. From 2019 to 2021 alone, undergraduate enrollment steeply dropped 6.6%, and the trend hasn’t really slowed down.1 Community colleges and for-profit schools especially have seen big declines, but even some four-year institutions are feeling the squeeze.
In 2020, about 400,000 fewer students enrolled in college compared to the previous year. The trend continued into 2021 and 2022. By 2023, enrollment had decreased to about 15.8 million students.2 It’s clear that this isn’t just a short-term, pandemic-related issue—something bigger is going on.
Why Are Fewer People Going to College?
Several factors contribute to college enrollment decline, and it’s not just one thing at a time. Many elements contribute to each possible student’s decision, from rising costs to changing attitudes about the value of a degree.
College Costs Keep Rising
One of the biggest reasons we are seeing a decline in college enrollment is the cost. College tuition has skyrocketed over the past few decades. Between 1980 and 2020, the price of attending college in the U.S. jumped by more than 1,200%.3 That’s substantially faster than the nation’s inflation or wage growth. As a result, students must pay higher tuition than ever before, while also having less buying power than generations prior.
Along with those rising costs comes a huge burden of student debt. The total amount of student loan debt in the U.S. hit $1.7 trillion in 2021, making it one of the biggest financial concerns for young adults.4 Federal and state financial aid programs have not kept pace with rising costs, leaving students and families to shoulder more of the financial burden. Many students balk at the thought of going into intensive debt for a degree with no guarantees. Without certainty of job placement or higher wages to offset the debt, it’s no wonder some think twice before enrolling.
“There is some skepticism,” said Bernie Valento, Vice President of Enrollment at St. Bonaventure University. “[Some students are] thinking, ‘I could go just work and make money instead of spending all this money on college.’”5
Is College Really Worth It?
There’s also been a growing sense that a college degree might not be the golden ticket it once was. The job market has changed, and more people are questioning whether a traditional four-year college education is worth the investment.
Today, you can land a high-paying job in fields like tech or skilled trades without a college degree. Tech companies such as Google, Apple, and IBM have all famously eliminated the requirement for a degree in certain positions, emphasizing skills and experience over formal credentials.6 With the rise of coding boot camps, certifications, and other short-term training programs, many are choosing to skip traditional college altogether. These shorter, more targeted programs are especially appealing to those seeking to enter fast-growing industries.
For those who’ve watched older generations struggle with student loans and modest wages, the value of a degree seems unclear. College graduates are facing slow wage growth and competitive job markets, leaving many questioning the value of a degree. According to a report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, about 41% of recent grads are underemployed, meaning they’re working jobs that don’t actually require a bachelor’s degree.7 Seeing this, more young people are starting to feel that college is no longer a sure path to financial security.
Shifting Demographics
Another factor contributing to the enrollment decline is demographics. The population of young people (18-24-year-olds) is shrinking in certain regions, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest. Now, even if the same percentage of young people chose to attend college, there would still be fewer students overall.
On top of that, international students—who have long been a big part of U.S. college enrollment—aren’t coming in the same numbers as before. Tightened immigration policies, rising geopolitical tensions, and the effects of the pandemic on travel have all made it harder for international students to come to the U.S. to study.8 In 2020, international student enrollment in U.S. colleges dropped by a staggering 15%, and the numbers have yet to fully recover.
With the decline of both international and local potential student pools, colleges are unlikely to match past enrollment numbers.
The Pandemic Effect
The COVID-19 pandemic had a profound impact on college enrollment, further accelerating trends that were already underway. Many students chose to defer their education or drop out entirely due to the uncertainty and disruptions caused by COVID-19.9 For some, financial hardships or the need to care for family members made continuing their education impossible. For others, dissatisfaction with the shift to online learning led them to reconsider their educational plans.
The pandemic also changed the job market, with many opting to enter the workforce immediately instead of going to college. The rise of remote work and the gig economy made it possible for students to earn money without a degree, and some saw it as a better option than paying for college during such an unpredictable time.
The long-term impact of the pandemic on college enrollment remains to be seen, but it’s clear that the disruptions of the last few years have contributed significantly to the overall decline in student numbers.
More Education Alternatives
The rise of alternative education options has played a big part in the drop in college enrollment. In recent years, we’ve seen a boom in nontraditional paths like online certifications, trade schools, and apprenticeships. These options offer a quicker and more affordable way to build skills for specific industries.
These programs focus on hands-on, job-ready skills that are in demand, especially in areas like healthcare, skilled trades, and technology. For instance, trade schools have become increasingly popular as an alternative to spending four years in college.10 A plumbing or electrician apprenticeship, for example, often takes just a couple of years and can lead directly to well-paying jobs in the field.
Similarly, platforms like Coursera, edX, and Udemy have made it easy for people to earn credentials in a wide range of subjects.11 These options are often cheaper, faster, and more directly aligned with specific industries. For many students, especially those interested in tech or skilled trades, tuition savings and expediency far outweigh traditional degree options.
What Does This Mean for Everyone?
The decline in college enrollment has a ripple effect, impacting individuals, higher education institutions—and the broader economy and society.
Economic Impacts
A decline in college enrollment could have significant long-term economic consequences. College graduates, on average, earn higher incomes and are less likely to be unemployed than those without a degree. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, workers with a bachelor’s degree earn ~67% more than those with only a high school diploma.12 A reduction in degreed workers could lead to a less skilled workforce, ultimately reducing productivity and innovation in key industries.
Certain industries, particularly those in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM), are already experiencing worker shortages. These fields rely heavily on a pipeline of college-educated talent. Fewer college graduates could worsen these shortages, ultimately slowing economic growth and making global competition harder for the U.S.
Strain on Colleges and Universities
Colleges and universities, especially smaller ones, are feeling the financial strain of declining enrollment. Most schools rely heavily on tuition revenue to fund their operations. Many colleges have had to cut budgets, reduce faculty, and eliminate academic programs in response to lower student numbers. Some institutions have even been forced to close their doors entirely.13
Community colleges, which traditionally disproportionately serve low-income, minority, and nontraditional students, have been hit particularly hard by the enrollment decline. These institutions play a critical role in providing access to higher education for underserved populations. But with fewer students enrolling, many community colleges face budget shortfalls, potentially leading to further reductions in services and programs.
Wider Social and Cultural Effects
One of the biggest concerns is the potential for growing inequality. College has long been a pathway to upward mobility. But if fewer people, especially those from low-income or minority backgrounds, are attending college, it could deepen the economic divide. Rising tuition and financial barriers disproportionately affect these groups, making it harder for them to access higher education and the opportunities that come with it.
Data from the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) shows that students from low-income families are significantly less likely to enroll in college than their wealthier peers.14 This gap is even more pronounced for minority students, particularly Black and Hispanic individuals. As college becomes less accessible to certain populations, the risk of perpetuating poverty cycles and limiting social mobility opportunity increases.
Along with economic inequality, the growing divide between those with and without college degrees could fuel political and cultural polarization. Research has shown that people with college degrees tend to have different political and social views than those without, and a widening gap in educational attainment could lead to further divisions in society.15
Workforce Diversity at Risk
The decline in college enrollment is also a threat to efforts aimed at increasing diversity in certain fields, particularly STEM. Many industries have been working to increase representation of women, minorities, and other underrepresented groups, and higher education has been a key pipeline for diversifying the workforce.
However, as fewer students from these groups attend college, the progress toward increasing diversity could stall or even reverse. This would not only be a setback for diversity and inclusion efforts but could also limit the range of perspectives and ideas that drive innovation in these fields.
What Can Be Done to Address College Enrollment Decline?
To tackle the problem of declining college enrollment, we need a range of solutions that address both the cost of education and the changing needs of students and the job market.
Making College More Affordable
One of the most obvious (though notably complicated) solutions to the enrollment crisis is to make college more affordable. This could involve increasing federal and state funding for public colleges and universities, expanding financial aid programs, and finding ways to reduce the overall cost of tuition. President Biden’s administration has taken steps in this direction, such as proposing increased funding for Pell Grants, which help low-income students pay for college, and pushing for tuition-free community college programs.16
Additionally, addressing the student debt crisis is critical to making college more accessible. Ideas like expanding income-driven repayment plans, offering student loan forgiveness for certain professions (such as teachers and healthcare workers), and lowering interest rates on federal student loans have all been proposed as ways to ease the financial burden of higher education.
Supporting Alternative Pathways
Not everyone needs a four-year degree to succeed, and that’s becoming increasingly clear in today’s job market. Policymakers and educators should focus on supporting and promoting alternative education pathways like vocational training, apprenticeships, and short-term certification programs. These options can provide students with the skills they need to enter the workforce quickly and affordably.
Alternatives like these can be especially valuable for industries like tech, where skills are more important than formal degrees. Programs like the Registered Apprenticeship Program, which combines paid on-the-job training with classroom instruction, have proven to be successful models for preparing students for high-demand careers without the need for a college degree.17 By promoting these alternatives, we can ensure that students have multiple paths to success.
Increasing Access for Underserved Populations
Ensuring that higher education remains widely accessible is critical, especially for underserved populations like low-income students, minorities, and first-generation college-goers. Colleges should invest in outreach programs, mentorship, and support services that help these students navigate the admissions process and succeed once they are enrolled.18
Making the financial aid process simpler and providing more flexible learning options (like online or hybrid courses) can also help remove barriers to higher education for students who may have work or family responsibilities.
It’s important to note that the college enrollment decline is partly rooted in the systemic struggles within K-12 education. The growing issue of teacher burnout, for example, perpetuates inequities in access to higher education. Burnout among educators in underserved districts disproportionately affects student performance and college preparedness.
Reframing the Value of College
Finally, colleges need to do a better job of showing the value of a degree. This could mean closer partnerships with employers to ensure that academic programs are aligned with job market needs. Offering more hands-on learning experiences, such as internships, co-op programs, and experiential learning opportunities, can also help students make the connection between their education and their future careers.
Providing strong career services and job placement assistance can help students transition smoothly into the workforce after graduation. By emphasizing the practical benefits, institutions can make a more compelling case for why students should invest in higher education.
St. Bonaventure University, located in upstate New York, is seeing its highest enrollment numbers in 30 years. When Valento arrived at Bonaventure in 2015, the school had 390 freshmen. Today, Bonaventure has 591 students enrolled in its freshman class.
“We invested,” he said. “Invest in new programs. Invest in new facilities. Invest, don’t cut.”
Bonaventure has added more than two dozen new programs in the last nine years, Valento added. That includes in-person and online programs at both the undergraduate and graduate level.
“Budgets were tight, and we made the decision. ‘If we’re going to survive and thrive in the future, we’re going to invest in the things that the market demands,’” he said.
Looking Ahead
The decline in college enrollment is a complex issue with no easy fix. Rising costs, changing perceptions of degree value, and a more dynamic job market are all playing a role. Addressing this challenge will require a combination of policy changes, institutional reforms, and shifts in how we think about education and career success. Making higher education more affordable, promoting alternative pathways, and expanding access to underserved groups can start reversing the trend.
Colleges and universities need to adapt to the changing needs of students and the job market. This may involve rethinking traditional models of education, embracing new technologies, and finding ways to make higher education more accessible, affordable, and relevant for today’s learners.
There is no doubt that the decline in enrollment presents significant challenges. But it also offers an opportunity to reshape higher education in ways that better serve both students and society.
A Unique Path for Each Unique Student
At ERA, we recognize that a degree is not the right path for every student. But for those who choose higher education, it’s crucial to offer accessible and realistic opportunities. By implementing strategies to boost college enrollment and providing proper guidance early on, we can help pave the way to success for those pursuing a degree. For more on this, check out our deep dive into education reform.
What are some other ways we can make higher education more attractive for students? How else can colleges and universities set up our students for success? Share your thoughts on higher education here or email us at info@ed-rev.org.
References
- Bill Conley, R. M. (n.d.). The Enrollment Changes Colleges are Feeling are Much More than Covid-19. Inside Higher Ed | Higher Education News, Events and Jobs. https://www.insidehighered.com/admissions/views/2022/02/28/enrollment-changes-colleges-are-feeling-are-much-more-covid-19 ↩︎
- Conley, J. (2024, April 22). US College Enrollment Decline – 2024 facts & figures. College Transitions. https://www.collegetransitions.com/blog/college-enrollment-decline/ ↩︎
- Forbes Magazine. (2023, November 6). College tuition inflation: Compare the cost of college over time. Forbes. https://www.forbes.com/advisor/student-loans/college-tuition-inflation/#:~:text=In%201980%2C%20the%20price%20to%20attend%20a%20four-year,price%20increased%20to%20%2428%2C775.%20That%E2%80%99s%20a%20180%25%20increase. ↩︎
- Rappeport, A. (2021, April 12). The U.S. budget deficit hit a record $1.7 trillion in the first half of the fiscal year. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/12/business/united-states-budget-deficit.html ↩︎
- Matthew, E. (2024, September). Bernie Valento, Vice President for Enrollment; St. Bonaventure University. personal. ↩︎
- Eadicicco, L. (n.d.). Apple and Google are looking for new ways to hire people without college degrees – but experts say college might still be your best bet for landing a high-paying Tech Job. Business Insider. https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-google-hire-jobs-without-degree-experts-say-college-important-2020-10 ↩︎
- The labor market for recent college graduates. FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK – Serving the Second District and the Nation – FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK. (n.d.). https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/college-labor-market#–:explore:unemployment ↩︎
- Cardoza, K. (2020, December 2). Enrollment by international students in U.S. colleges
plummets. NPR. https://www.npr.org/2020/12/02/912669406/enrollment-by-international-students-in-u-s-colleges-plummets ↩︎ - Nadworny, E. (2021, October 26). College enrollment plummeted during the pandemic. This fall, it’s even worse. NPR. https://www.npr.org/2021/10/26/1048955023/college-enrollment-down-pandemic-economy ↩︎
- Herder, L. (2022, January 18). Enrollment trends continue downward spiral. Diverse. https://www.diverseeducation.com/students/article/15287306/enrollment-trends-continue-downward-spiral ↩︎
- Pugachevsky, J. (n.d.). We compared 13 popular online learning platforms for all ages, budgets, and interests – our favorites include Coursera for Certificate Courses and masterclass for creative arts classes. Business Insider. https://www.businessinsider.com/guides/learning/online-learning-platform-comparison ↩︎
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (n.d.). Education pays, 2020. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. https://www.bls.gov/careeroutlook/2021/data-on-display/education-pays.htm ↩︎
- Nadworny, E., & Larkin, M. (2019, December 16). Fewer students are going to college. here’s why that matters. NPR. https://www.npr.org/2019/12/16/787909495/fewer-students-are-going-to-college-heres-why-that-matters ↩︎
- Irwin, V. (n.d.). Report on the condition of education 2023. Institute of Education Sciences: National Center for Education Statistics. https://nces.ed.gov/pubs2023/2023144.pdf ↩︎
- Cohn, N. (2021, September 8). How Educational Differences are Widening America’s Political Rift. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/08/us/politics/how-college-graduates-vote.html#:~:text=College%20graduates%20attribute%20racial%20inequality%2C%20crime%20and%20poverty,on%20their%20values%2C%20not%20simply%20on%20economic%20self-interest ↩︎
- Assistant Secretary for Public Affairs (ASPA). (2024, September 19). Biden-Harris Administration announces historic investment to integrate mental health and substance use disorder treatment into Primary Care. HHS.gov. https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2024/09/19/biden-harris-administration-announces-historic-investment-integrate-mental-health-substance-disorder-treatment-primary-care.html ↩︎
- Apprenticeship, O. of. (n.d.). Registered apprenticeship program. Apprenticeship.gov. https://www.apprenticeship.gov/employers/registered-apprenticeship-program ↩︎
- Elizabeth Gellman, K. M., Meyer, K., Brahima Sangafowa Coulibaly, L. S., Emily Markovich Morris, M. L., & Adam Looney, C. Y. (2024, July 26). The case for college: Promising Solutions to reverse college enrollment declines. Brookings. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-case-for-college-promising-solutions-to-reverse-college-enrollment-declines/ ↩︎
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